A
Representative
Program Model for Developing Space Tourism
By
Robert A. Goehlich
ISBN 3-936846-29-4, $35.00, 2003, p145, soft cover
Apart from scientific
viewpoint of
space, there is an increasing interest for new ventures like space
entertainment and space tourism. Affordable space access is essential
for the
development of new space business, especially space tourism. Properly
designed
Reusable Launch Vehicles hold promise for low-cost access to space.
Financing
research and development of Reusable Launch Vehicles requires public or
private
investors. Investors are only interested in supporting Reusable Launch
Vehicle
developments, if there is a guarantee that they earn acceptable benefit
returns
in terms of revenue, prestige, advertising or security at an acceptable
risk.
Thus,
the analysis performed
results in a scenario for mass space tourism flights, which attempts to
satisfy
operator's, passenger's and public's perceived needs and preferences by
a
systematical approach. The focal point of the investigation is closing
the gap
between today's "pioneer space tourism" and possible future's
"mass space tourism". This might be realized (1) by increasing public
space awareness, (2) by operating suborbital vehicles for semi-regular
flights
and (3) by operating orbital vehicles for regular flights during a
period of 70
years. Assumed passenger demand may open a new market with an annual
turnover
of $10 billion within the frame of this representative scenario.
In
1999, he worked at the Israel
Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel, investigating pollutant
emission models
for computer-aided preliminary aircraft design. In 2000, he conducted
his
master’s thesis addressing the feasibility of space tourism at the
University
of Washington, Seattle, USA. At the National Aerospace Laboratory,
Tokyo,
Japan, he examined the economical performance of a Reusable Launch
Vehicle
concept, in 2001. He stayed for 3 months in 2002 at Astrium/EADS,
Kourou
Spaceport, French Guiana to consider a program proposal for a tourist
reusable
launch fleet operated from Kourou Spaceport.
Table
of Contents
Abstract . . . . . . . .
.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
List of Figures . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . xiv
List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . xvi
List of Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xvii
Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xx
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Motivation
1.2 Historical Overview
1.3 Study Objective
1.4 Study Approach
1.5 System Architecture
1.6 Model Structure and Analytical Process
2 Space
Tourism Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.1 Definition
of Space Tourism
2.2 Aspects
on Space Tourism
Flights
2.2.1 General
2.2.2 Beginning of Space
Tourism
2.2.3 Order of Events
2.2.4 Tourist Attractions in
Space
2.2.5 Space Advertising
2.2.6 Nutrition
2.3 Main
Market "Space
Tourists"
2.3.1 Mass Space Tourism
2.3.1.1 Terrestrial Tour (Stage 1)
2.3.1.2 Parabolic Flight (Stage 2)
2.3.1.3 High-altitude Flight (Stage 3)
2.3.1.4 Suborbital Flight (Stage 4)
2.3.1.5 Orbital Flight (Stage 5)
2.3.1.6 Orbital Flight plus Hotel Stay (Stage 6)
2.3.2 Individual Space Tourism
2.3.2.1 Orbital Flight (Stage 1)
2.3.2.2 Orbital Flight plus ISS Stay (Stage 2)
2.4 Minor
Market
"Satellites"
2.5 Market
Demand according to
Passengers
2.5.1 General
2.5.2 Market Surveys
2.5.2.1 Overview
2.5.2.2 Abitzsch
2.5.2.3 Bekey
2.5.2.4 Kelly Space & Technology
2.5.2.5 Zogby International
2.5.3 Limitations
2.5.4 Results
2.6 Market
Supply according to
Manufacturers
2.7 Market
Stimulation by Space
Travel Agencies
2.7.1 Space Adventures
2.7.2 Incredible Adventures
2.7.3 Spacetopia
2.8 Market Support
by Organizations
2.8.1 X Prize Foundation
2.8.2 Space Transportation
Association
2.8.3 Space Tourism Society
2.8.4 ShareSpace Foundation
2.8.5 Japanese Rocket Society
2.9 Assumptions
for World Trends
2.10 Results
3 Selection of Candidate Vehicles . . . . . . . . . 31
3.1 Evaluation
Procedure
3.2 Determining
an Optimized
Vehicle Model
3.2.1 Method of Paired
Comparison
3.2.1.1 General
3.2.1.2 Example
3.2.1.3 Applications and Limitations
3.2.2 Defining Design Features
and
Characteristics
3.2.3 Criteria of Technical
Feasibility
3.2.3.1 Definition
3.2.3.2 Qualitative Evaluation
3.2.3.3 Quantitative Evaluation
3.2.4 Criteria of Economical
Feasibility
3.2.4.1 Definition
3.2.4.2 Qualitative Evaluation
3.2.4.3 Quantitative Evaluation
3.2.5 Criteria of Political
Feasibility
3.2.5.1 Definition
3.2.5.2 Qualitative Evaluation
3.2.5.3 Quantitative Evaluation
3.2.6 Results
3.2.6.1 Integrated Valuation of Feasibility for
Suborbital Vehicles
3.2.6.2 Integrated Valuation of Feasibility for
Orbital
Vehicles
3.3 Selecting
proposed Vehicle
Concepts
3.3.1 Pre-selection
3.3.1.1 General
3.3.1.2 Method
3.3.1.3 Results
3.3.2 Final Selection
3.3.2.1 General
3.3.2.2 Method
3.3.2.3 Results
3.4 Results
4 Model of
a Program Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4.1 Three Step
Program
4.2 Step
One: Increasing Public
Space
Awareness
4.2.1 General
4.2.2 Approach
4.3 Step
Two: Realizing Suborbital
Flights
4.3.1 General
4.3.2 Flight Profile
4.3.3 Vehicle
4.3.4 Passenger Module
4.3.5 Mass Characteristics
4.4 Step
Three: Realizing Orbital
Flights
4.4.1 General
4.4.2 Flight Profile
4.4.3 Vehicle
4.4.4 Passenger Compartment
4.4.5 Mass Characteristics
4.5 Phases
of System Realization
4.6 Cost
Engineering
4.6.1 Method
4.6.1.1 General
4.6.1.2 Discussion of Cost Items
4.6.2 Tools
4.6.2.1 General
4.6.2.2 TRASIM Model
4.6.2.3 Structure
4.6.2.4 Applications and Limitations
4.6.3 Business Case Study
4.6.3.1 General
4.6.3.2 Strategies for Reduced Development Cost
4.6.3.3 Strategies for Reduced Production Cost
4.6.3.4 Strategies for Reduced Operating Cost
4.7 Profitability
4.7.1 Payback Period
4.7.2 Return on Investment
4.7.3 Cost of Capital
4.7.4 Net Present Value
4.8 Program
Assumptions
4.9 Results
4.9.1 Development and
Production Cost
4.9.2 Launch Rate
4.9.3 Full Operational Fleet
4.9.4 Fleet Life-cycle Costs
and
Receipts
4.9.5 Enterprise Receipts and
Cost
per Launch
4.9.6 Ticket Price and
Enterprise
Ticket Cost
4.9.7 Cash Flow
4.9.8 Return on Investment
4.9.9 Ticket Price Strategy
4.9.10 Year of Initial Operational Capability
5 Benefit Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
5.1 Benefit
Model
5.1.1 General
5.1.2 Structure
5.1.3 Applications and
Limitations
5.2 Implementation
of Estimation
5.2.1 Step One: Defining
Objectives
and
Future Trends
5.2.2 Step Two: Estimating
Relative
Weights
5.2.3 Step Three: Selecting
State
Variables
5.2.4 Step Four: Selecting
Benefit
Indicators
5.2.5 Step Five: Determining
Benefit
Indicator
Values
5.2.6 Step Six: Selecting
Benefit
Functions
5.2.7 Step Seven: Calculating
Benefit
of each
Sub Objective
5.2.8 Step Eight: Calculating
Benefit
of all Sub
Objectives
5.3 Results
6 Hurdles and Opposing Forces . . . . . . . . . . . 107
6.1 General
6.2 Social Issues
6.2.1 Ethics
6.2.2 Health
6.2.3 Psychology
6.2.4 Envy
6.3 Institutional Issues
6.3.1 Safety
6.3.2 Environmental Pollution
6.3.3 Licensing
6.3.4 Laws
6.4 Financial Issues
6.4.1 Investors
6.5 Results
7 Conclusion and Recommendation . . . . . . . 117
7.1 General
7.2 Comparison of Space Launch Vehicles with Aircraft
7.3 Comparison with other Studies
7.4 Critical Comments
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . .125
Appendix A - Worldwide proposed RLV Concepts
Appendix B - Pairwise Comparison (Technical Aspects)
Appendix C - Pairwise Comparison (Economic Aspects)
Appendix D - Pairwise Comparison (Political Aspects)
Appendix E - Detailed Selection
Appendix F - Benefit Model
Curriculum Vitae